Vance or Rubio in 2028 or 2032?

[Grudge]

Which of these post T candidates will most likely become the Republican nominee? And do you think either of them will run for President in 2028, or do you think one or both will sit that one out and try their luck in 2032?

[jawn galliano]

as electoral candidates, they're both juiceless bores, the republicans don't really have anyone waiting in the wings that can actually win a general. i think vance is the likelier of the two, he's got a bigger and more influential elite constituency in the ascendent tech fascist bloc

but given that the domestic ruptures from iran haven't even begun in earnest yet, i think the presumption that there will be elections in 2028 is unduly optimistic

the reserves finish depleting in a little over a month and change and that's when the real fun starts

[Grudge]

The part about your post that I find more interesting is the claim that the reserves will deplete in a month. I googled for a bit on that for references. The US seems to have 4 months of "emergency stockpiles", plus domestic production which can be kicked into high gear.

Can you expand on what you mean by the reserves depleting in a little over a month?

[jawn galliano]

instead of rationing to stretch inventories given the evaporation of 20% of the global energy supply, we've been plundering the reserves to prop up financial markets, manage paper prices, and generally to keep up appearances. we started drawing down reserves in march, US inventories are depleting at an increasingly rapid clip (~17M barrels last week alone) and we haven't even hit proper summer demand yet. ROW inventories are also doing the same thing which, as those reserves run out will only further accelerate the depletion of US stocks as we sell into those markets to capture the higher prices. also factor in that there are operational minimum levels that have to be maintained for the whole global oil production and distribution system to remain functional, so the headline inventory numbers don't actually tell you all that much

also factor in that even if the conflict were to end immediately - right at the time of this post - production and transit and all that won't come close to recovering to pre-war levels by the end of the year. that isn't going to happen. there is an impasse that can only be resolved by US regime change, which is also clearly not going to happen.

what is happening is totally unprecedented in the history of industrial civilization, and there is a pervasive attitude that everything will go back to normal because it simply has to. we'll pay more for gas for a little bit, and then it will go back down like it always does. but it doesn't have to. and every single indicator we have is screaming that it won't, but everyone plugs their ears and keeps buying stocks because president deals says there's definitely a deal for real this time. and if the markets are up well then all is right in the world, and will continue to be forever, because it simply has to be

if you need to hear it from a respectable person, they somehow keep letting this hard-on bearer on CNBC to say the same things

[Grudge]

He's saying July is when the US is going to "start having problems". I'll be looking to investigate the facts on that further. This article states similar views in some detail:

IEA: Oil Supply Chain Reserves Almost Entirely Depleted
https://supplychaindigital.com/news/iea ... y-depleted


One thing seems almost certain, is that with the wrecking of the ceasefire yesterday, this situation will continue stay bad.

[jawn galliano]

the 'problems' being there is not enough juice to run society, which will begin hitting right around the same time as the downstream shortages start to become much more visible, and during what's probably going to be an exceptionally harsh summer season. and at some point soon, the markets music will have to stop - you cannot extend and pretend indefinitely. there is no growth when the lifeblood of that growth - energy - is in a global shortage. so add mass job loss and business failures into the mix. we are hurtling full steam ahead into a series of overlapping crises that we are not remotely equipped to deal with

all of which is to say we are in uncharted territory, with an extremely high likelihood of significant prolonged social unrest, all coinciding with a government that desperately needs to retain power and has absolutely no constraints on doing so

[User]

happy days everyone

one of my oldest school mates Glenn (you met him in UK mark) just bought a house in seattle for USD $1.3 million. he and his fam are staying the distance

[jawn galliano]

hell yeah glenn, well done on the purchase, seattle is a very nice place to live if you can swing it. on the one hand i can't imagine a worse time to tether yourself to the US, but then i suppose it's not exactly sunshine and rainbows elsewhere in the anglosphere or anywhere else for that matter

[User]

glenn can only do this because he and his wife are tethered to the tech bro machine

also, if i make it to 60, i'm moving into an apartment, i'm sick of all this moving and dealing with houses